A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
